Has winter come for the newspaper industry?
Although the question has not raised serious debate, and some newspapers are still expanding, many media insiders have joined counterparts in Western countries as they cry over declining readership.
The following figures offer a current sketch of the newspaper industry:
There were 1,926 newspapers in China as of July 2005, among which 49.7 per cent are dailies and 29.8 per cent weeklies.
On average, broadsheets have 16 pages while tabloids have 32 pages.
Every 1,000 Chinese bought an average of 76 papers in 2004 while in Beijing and Shanghai the number reached 274 and 268, respectively.
On a normal day, about 320 million Chinese read newspapers 26.6 per cent of the population.
Newspaper advertisement revenue totalled 23 billion yuan (US$2.84 billion) in 2004; about 18.6 per cent of national advertisement revenue.
Newspaper sales reached 25 billion yuan (US$3.08 billion) in 2004, accounting for 0.19 per cent of national GDP.
The statistics are open to debate. Provided by Renmin University of China Professor Yu Guoming, the figures herald a continuous boom for optimists, but the beginning of a decline for pessimists.
For the optimists, the number of dailies has grown by 10 per cent in the last two years. The most convincing example is the Global Times, published by People's Daily, which has expanded from a tri-weekly to a daily, with a year-on-year increase in circulation of 55 per cent.
For the pessimists, the good old days of newspapers making huge profits are gone, as advertisement revenue is declining and newspaper readership decreasing.
In Beijing, 68 per cent of residents read papers in 2002, but the number had dropped to 62 per cent by 2004.
Although the debate is largely confined to a small circle of specialists, the newspaper landscape of this vast country is changing.
Like everywhere in the world, it has been challenged by new technologies such as the Internet and mobile phones.
There is no argument about the coming of age of new media, but it has also compelled newspapers to innovate.
One of the most interesting new concepts is renting newspapers.
In April last year, Southeast Express, a paper based in Fujian Province, announced it would distribute its paper to readers' homes if they paid a 48-yuan (US$6) deposit for a year. Every month, delivery people return to collect the old papers to be recycled.
The announcement was met by an enthusiastic response. Eight hotlines for subscriptions were busy taking orders all day.
A few other newspapers followed suit shortly afterwards and saw their circulations increase.
The distribution model aims to tackle free access to Internet news. What's more, a world restricted by limited resources will leave the newspaper industry with no choice but to recycle.
It is obvious that papers are becoming more bulky. Just 10 years ago, dailies had fewer than 20 pages. Now the figure is more than double that. The Beijing News, for example, has some 80 pages on average and 100 or more on special occasions.
In a city with several comprehensive dailies competing, the question is not which can lead the market but which can survive the longest.
Here come the pessimists again. China's newspaper market is saturated.
The Beijing Media Corporation, which is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, is a case in point. Its profits have dropped drastically and its H-share performance was poor in 2005. As the first stock listing of a mainland media enterprise, the company has taught newspapers an important lesson.
The once-popular capital injection theory does not seem to help, although there is still foreign capital looking for a way in.
The fact is, compared to developed countries, China's market is only at a primary stage of growth, which is currently slow.
To make their products more competitive, many newspapers have worked to improve content in areas such as commentaries and opinion.
The auditing storm waged by the National Audit Office and followed by many newspaper commentators last year whipped up public opinion.
The influence of editorials is on the rise. The reasons more and more opinion pieces are appearing in newspapers are threefold.
First, social progress has made society more tolerant of different views and a more healthy public opinion environment is in the making. Second, market competition has created an urge to open up newspaper content development, with opinion filling the space. Third, contemporary Chinese have become critical and analytical. People want to express themselves and opinion pages certainly appeal to readers' needs.
Both newsroom professionals and business managers are learning to adapt to a changing China.
Optimists and pessimists alike recognize it will take Chinese newspapers decades, or even longer, to blossom as mature, influential and competitive papers on the world stage.
