MAKING predictions about anything is a fool's errand, which got me wondering why I was put in charge of it this year. But, with a firm grasp of industry trends and a little imagination (plus a Magic 8-Ball, a Ouija Board and a
piece of yarn that a cat had spit up), I was able to divine some slam-dunk predictions for the coming year that would make Kreskin weep. Here goes:
- The 30-Second Spot will finally die: After many predictions of its demise, to the point where the "30-second spot is dead" became conventional wisdom in the marketing/advertising industry, the 30-Second Spot will succumb this year from prostate cancer. Surrounded by family and friends and his rabbi, it will be a peaceful passing. The funeral will be attended by the 60-Second Spot, the Radio Ad and the Bumper. The Infomerical, which hadn't been on speaking terms with the 30-Second Spot for years because of a dispute over gambling debts, will stay home.
- A paradigm will be created, then destroyed, then brought back again. A new paradigm will entreat the marketing industry to see a new possibility, a new way of reaching customers that is non-intrusive and allows for two-way communication. But later in the year, marketers will realize that the paradigm was shaky to begin with and, in a fit of pique, will destroy it. They will then come up with a new paradigm that isn't as catchy as the last one, and by December will elect to bring it back, just for laughs.
- Blogs will change everything. For consumers, blogs will change the way you make soup, the way you de-worm your dog and the way you look at your reflection in a store window. You name it. For marketers, the blogosphere in 2006 will prompt them to think very seriously and then somewhat less seriously and finally to think even more seriously than the first time about their business models. Eventually, blogs will force marketers to realign their prejudices and ways of doing business until they are doing the exact same thing, except they'll be spending more time reading blogs.
- The consumer will be boss. With more power, the consumer in 2006 will rightly take her place as the boss and will begin having an affair with an intern, laying off staff and developing a drinking problem. Marketers, aghast at the consumer's behavior, will talk behind her back, but not confront the consumer directly, instead choosing passive-aggressive ways to annoy her.
- The FDA will crack down on illegal drug marketing. Having taken on direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical ads, the FDA will instead shift its focus to "word-of-mouth" advertising for local pot, mushroom and cocaine dealers. The action, however, will be challenged by the emerging word-of-mouth marketing industry, the American Civil Liberties Union as well as Ben and Jerry.
- Advertising "one-stop shops" will thrive. As marketers are pressed to find ways to reach consumers, advertising holding companies like WPP and Interpublic will continue to evolve into "one-stop shops" for everything from advertising to guerrilla marketing to package design. Taking the idea a step further, they also will begin stocking groceries and offering oil changes and hairstyling for marketers, all in an attempt to meet their growing demands.
- The Hispanic consumer will arrive. After years of treating the Hispanic segment as an afterthought addressed by stereotypical ads showing groups of young Latinos dancing and partying in the streets, marketers will shift more money to addressing the demo with a much greater amount of TV, print and online ads featuring stereotypical images of young Latinos dancing and partying in the streets.
- Hollywood will abandon "The Window." As the window between a theatrical and a DVD release continues to shorten, one studio will elect to do away altogether with the window and refuse to release films in any form. The idea, trumpeted by a famous billionaire, will bankrupt the studio, but others will eventually follow suit, finding the move has a dramatic effect on reducing costly overhead.
- Marketers will continue to fear Google. As the search engine delves into more lines of business and acquires more clout in 2006, marketers will be terrified of Google, but will still find the name kind of funny to say out loud.
